OLAWALE RASHEED writes on the politics of inter-defection rocking the two dominant political parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), concluding that the development does not signal readiness for politics of ideology in the country.
POLITICAL drama is unlimited in this countdown to 2015. Political leaders are deploying multiple weapons, with some yielding results and others misfiring and/or backfiring. Poaching, albeit politically immoral, has become a standard weapon now being employed with devastating consequences. What the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) started, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has twisted with melodramatic results.
When at the heights of PDP’s near implosion the APC leaders embarked on a poaching tour, little did political observers indeed the entire populace realise that the game was just commencing . The APC demonstrated the audacity of hope to the extent of inviting the hilltop General, Ibrahim Babangida and Ota farmer, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, to join its fold. The train was moving so ruthlessly that many political watchers were already preparing the political obituary of the PDP and thinking of where to erect its epitaph. Only very few insiders within the PDP could affirm solid fate in the survival of the party.
The opposition coalition got crowned when the G5 governors make true their threat and crossed over to the ruling party. It was a political earthquake and a tsunami that almost swept away the immovable Aso Rock. The defection of the state chief executives was followed by legislative shake-up that further worsened the political fortunes of the ruling party. For the first time since 1999, the party faced the prospect of losing its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. That prospect was scary for many party chiefs to say the least.
The possibility of the opposition gaining legislative majority portends serious implications for the ruling party. In the event of such happening, political pundits were already calculating possibilities of removing the president as a way of stopping him from running in 2015. Others were working on a lame duck agenda through the crippling of legislative proposals by the executive arm. Still some are looking at multiple probes to distract and destabilise top executive officials. The plots and scheming were endless.
While the defection politics was playing out, the polity was hit by damning letters and revelations which shook the political firmaments to their foundations. As a watcher of the political process put it, 2012 as the worst era for the PDP as the year saw the party truly rushing towards self-destruction with its main godfathers openly launching life-threatening attacks. Many analysts are still wondering how the president weathered the storm and got the party and the government to their present stabilisation.
A knotty point which excites many observers was where the pendulum of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, would swing. By last year, many had concluded that the Number Four Citizen had concluded arrangements to move to the opposition party. Others posited that the speaker is the unannounced presidential candidate of the opposition.
Early this year, the reports persisted of imminent defection of the Sokoto-born politician.
The reversal came in the last two weeks when the speaker openly and repeatedly denied plots to defect. On two occasions, he had explained why he cannot quit PDP. What caused the sudden volte face is still a matter of conjectures. Some posited that the young lawyer turned politician already has Sokoto governorship ticket in his pocket. Others hinted that another high-profile deal must have been struck with the president. The Tambuwal phenomenon was a shocker to the opposition and a new dawn for the ruling party.
If Tambuwal’s case is an issue, the happenings within the ruling party also dramatically changed. The last executive meeting of the party came and went like that, without the imminent crash many political watchers had predicted .The ease with which the transition from Bamanga Tukur to Adamu Muazu was handled must have surprised even the opposition group. The jolly-good-fellow camaraderie that heralded Tukur’s exit appeared to be the turning points in the feuding poetics of the ruling party.
The strategy of the APC leadership worked at the initial phase .The poaching tactics yielded harvests never experienced within the nation’s political history. Many had held the views that the opposition leaders pushed the card too far. Others believed the drive for new members even from the ruling party was never an overkill, as the opposition leaders saw the ruling party as too entrenched in its self-suicide to care about the poaching of its core members.
The day the like of puritanist like General Mohammadu Buhari consented to wooing the like of General Babangida, Abdulsalami Abubakar, Atiku Abubakar and Chief Obasanjo, it is believed was the turning point even in the calculated plans of the APC. Many analysts were critical of such visitations and invitation, hitting hard at the opposition chiefs for romancing military dictators. It was at that point that the poaching tactics started attracting many attentions and interpretations.
The opening of doors to many strange bedfellows immediately diluted the touted progressivism of the opposition, changed the claim of the party to being new and suddenly earned the opposition the label of PDP number two. The opposition which now parades former top players within the ruling party, thus, have added to its profile all the good and the bad sides of the defectors. Besides that, the poaching tool created an unusual outcome which essentially polarised the opposition between old and new members.
The polarising situation deeply pronounced in Sokoto and Kano pitched two old forces against each other. Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso who defected into the APC had an historical political feud with his successor, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau. Kwankwaso entered the party with a deal that makes him the leader of the party, a development, Shekarau and others foundation members of the in the state regarded as injustice. In Sokoto, the same situation played itself out as the old feud between former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa and Governor Aliyu Wamakko transformed poaching gains into an albatross.
The situation got complicated with the way the party’s North-West chairman, former Speaker Aminu Masari handled the matter. Masari, a former PDP member, was accused of favoring the defected governors who were also of PDP extraction. Masari, playing hard politics, had probably calculated that a sitting governor is more politically valuable than a former governor. The Katsina politician could have also reasoned that the control of the grass roots would be better assured with a sitting governor rather than a former one. Whatever the reasons for Masari’s bluntness, many believed he was not sensitive enough, or considerate enough in Bafarawa and Shekarau’s issues, especially these individuals being important foundation members of the opposition coalition.
Both Bafarawa and Shekarau had finally defected to the PDP. The development can be classed as significant mainly because both men were foundation members of the opposition coalition. As Bafarawa had started demonstrating, the exit of such legacy members can create a moral backlash for the APC in its push to oust the ruling party. In their own right, they have huge political following and backed up by federal forces, their impact cannot be rightly underrated.
The case of legislative defection is also a keenly interesting one. Two key cases are ongoing on the matter. The first is challenging the legality of the governors’ defection while the second is seeking a declaration that defection of lawmakers is contrary to the spirit and letters of the constitution. The judicial battle is still on and it is already having impact on the urge and push of the likely and old defectors .As things stand, the gain of the opposition is still a far cry from the original expectation. Two-thirds legislative calculation is no longer realisable and the prospect of gaining a simple majority is still a far cry.
The defection politics has also raised an unexpected alliance within the chambers. A coalition of sort is building among other political parties with presence in the chambers. The PDP is now leading a coalition that involves the Labour and the Accord Party. When allied forces are added up to face the opposition’s granite coalition, the APC may still not get the majority to hold the PDP government to ransom. The defection may have however rattled the PDP sufficiently and enforced a new style of leadership under Muazu.
A lot of drama is however playing out in the legislature. A lot of switching in and out of the APC, PDP is ongoing. The situation has become so fluid that even the opposition coalition may be feeling betrayed in some instances. A key factor here is the sudden volte face of Tambuwal, a decision that may have ruptured the legislative coup against the PDP. The speaker who got into office through APC backing may now be enjoying a new support base occasioned by the realignment of force. The fear of dethronement is no longer real as the coalition led by the PDP is strong enough to sustain the House leadership.
Who beats who in this poaching game? PDP chairman, Adamu Muazu threw a jibe at the APC leadership, declaring that his leadership will beat the APC at their game.” The APC thinks it is a master poacher. We will show them we are better at it. We will teach them a lesson”, Muazu said. Already, the game is on as evidenced by the counter defection and the vow by the party to bring back some of its defected governors.
Regardless of the outcome in the final analysis, the APC has changed the way politics is played in the country. Its leadership achieved major success in nearly crashing a ruling party ever eager to announce “no shaking” as its slogan. The opposition taught PDP a bitter lesson and forced the party to wake up from its slumber and avoid complacency which appears to be the bane of its existence. Due to APC onslaught, PDP leaders are responding to practical politics, designing winning strategies and stopping the old ways of power acquisition.
But how far has PDP learnt its lesson. The new chairman is pushing for reform but the path is laced with many landmines. In pushing for reforms, the chairman cannot but be conscious of powerful interests who will countenance return of party control to the old forces.
Muazu is faced with reforming to create a level playing field. His challenge is to effect such reforms without tilting the balance against the powerful interest. If he did, it may not be long before fresh crisis will erupt within the party.
Stakeholders however agree that reform is a must and that if the incumbent must win the ticket, it should be under a free and fair primary. A level playing field is what Muazu has promised party members. How he hopes to pursue the agenda without hurting the incumbent is yet to be seen. Muazu has however repeatedly announced that all interests would be accommodated.
For the APC, its gains are phenomenal. Its reach is great and its prospect is bright. The party, however, has a duty to rework its strategy. The present approach is slowing down the tempo of its popularity. The militant approach to engaging the ruling party is creating victim out of the presidency. The failure to advance policy alternatives is worrying many admirers of the opposition coalition especially within the civil society.
But the drama is only just beginning as more enrapturing scenes will be played by both parties. Poaching is turning politics on its head and opposition and the ruling party are due for more exchanges of defectors and counter defectors.
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